By Prof Gitile Naituli
I have keenly analyzed the ongoing conversation relating to the inclusion of ODM in government, and it is my submission that the perceived “division” in ODM is tactical. Do not be fooled to believe that the ongoing exchange of words between those who “support Baba to partner with Ruto to form the expanded government” and those opposed to the idea are genuine.
It is not a secret that the Azimio constituent parties vehemently opposed the proposal and decision by Raila Odinga to partner with Ruto to form what they termed a government of national unity. This development became Raila’s obstacle to his larger scheme. Raila has always hidden behind the idea of dialogue and to national interest to push his personal interests at the expense of other parties and sometimes the nation herself. The withdrawal of constituent parties of Azimio reduced the idea of partnership to an ODM affair.
ODM is the major beneficiary on the minority side of both houses in parliament. A partnership between Ruto and ODM would expose the latter to losing its stake on the minority side. It would be a loss to the party, as the stake they get in government would not be enough to accommodate the larger interest of the party. Therefore, they had to devise a way to gain from the proposed partnership while maintaining their grip on the minority side.
The only way to achieve that was to fake a division in the party. Remember, the partnership between Raila Odinga and President Ruto happened a long time ago in Mombasa. The modalities on how to actualize the partnership have been ongoing. But the withdrawal of constituent parties of Azimio from the arrangement came as a surprise to Raila Odinga. His interests were secured with Azimio partnering with Ruto. But with other parties excluding themselves from the pact, part of his interests are jeopardized. He has to safeguard them.
The partnership between ODM and Kenya Kwanza regime is still intact. In fact, William Ruto will go ahead and include several members of ODM in his government. But here is the play. ODM had to create an imaginary division to safeguard its interests in Azimio. Ruto will enjoy the support of Raila Odinga through the faction supporting the pact as the other faction pushes for Raila’s interests in Azimio. The constituent parties of Azimio cannot lockout ODM from minority positions in the house because they claim that they declined William Ruto’s offer to join the government. They will argue that those who joined did so as individuals and were not sanctioned by the party.
Therefore, there is no division in ODM. It’s just a tactical and strategic plan to safeguard the interests of Raila Odinga and those of the party. The ODM party feels that it has outwitted the constituent parties of Azimio. Where does this tactical plan leave Kalonzo Musyoka and the constituent parties of Azimio? What are their options? How will they respond to this arrangement?
Ends…
